Why the War Began in Ukraine, ইউক্রেন যুদ্ধ শুরুর কারণ

 

The war in Ukraine, a multifaceted conflict with regional and global repercussions, is marked by a combination of historical, political, and economic factors. Below is an in-depth exploration of the causes, progress, and consequences of the war:

 

1. Why the War Began

Historical Context

Russian Influence in Ukraine: Ukraine, a former Soviet republic, has historical and cultural ties with Russia. However, after the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991, Ukraine became an independent nation, seeking closer ties with the West.

Crimea Annexation (2014): Russia annexed Crimea, claiming historical ties and citing threats to ethnic Russians. This action escalated tensions and created a geopolitical divide.

Political Factors

Eastern Ukraine's Separatists: The Donetsk and Luhansk regions, with significant Russian-speaking populations, sought independence, supported by Russia.

NATO Expansion: Russia perceives NATO’s expansion into Eastern Europe as a direct threat to its security. Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO and the EU intensified Russia's opposition.

Immediate Cause (2022)

Russian Invasion: Russia launched a full-scale invasion in February 2022, citing Ukraine's alleged militarization and "denazification" as justifications. Most observers saw this as an attempt to reassert dominance over Ukraine and counter Western influence.

2. Planning and Execution

Russia's Military Strategy: Initially aimed to quickly capture Kyiv and overthrow Ukraine's government. However, strong Ukrainian resistance and Western military aid thwarted these plans.

Ukraine's Defense: With significant Western assistance (weapons, intelligence, training), Ukraine adopted guerilla and counter-offensive strategies to resist Russian advances.

3. Involvement of Other Nations

Western Allies: The U.S., NATO, and EU countries provided military, financial, and humanitarian aid to Ukraine while imposing severe sanctions on Russia.

Russia's Allies: While China, India, and others have refrained from direct involvement, they often maintain neutral or mildly supportive positions for Russia due to economic and strategic interests.

Global Impact: Many developing nations are caught in the crossfire, facing economic disruptions without taking sides.

4. Damage and Casualties

Human Toll:

Civilians killed: Estimated in the tens of thousands.

Soldiers: Both Ukrainian and Russian military casualties are high but difficult to verify.

Injured: Millions are physically injured or psychologically scarred.

Displacement: Over 8 million Ukrainians have fled as refugees, primarily to Europe. Millions more are internally displaced.

Infrastructure:

Ukrainian cities like Mariupol and Bakhmut are nearly destroyed.

Critical infrastructure, including power grids, has been deliberately targeted.

5. Global Food Crisis

Ukraine and Russia as Breadbaskets: Together, they account for 30% of global wheat exports, 20% of corn, and 75% of sunflower oil.

Black Sea Blockade: Russian naval control of the Black Sea disrupted exports, leading to rising food prices, particularly in Africa and the Middle East.

6. Economic and Political Repercussions

Product Pricing and Inflation

Energy Costs: Europe, heavily dependent on Russian gas, faced skyrocketing energy prices due to sanctions and supply disruptions.

Global Inflation: Supply chain disruptions caused worldwide price hikes for basic goods.

Currency and Trade

Ruble Volatility: The Russian ruble initially plummeted but later stabilized due to capital controls and energy exports.

Ukrainian Economy: Devastated by war, relying heavily on international aid.

World Politics

Western Unity: NATO and the EU became more cohesive, accelerating military cooperation and expansion (e.g., Sweden and Finland joining NATO).

Geopolitical Shifts: China and India’s positions revealed cracks in global alliances, showing multipolarity in world power dynamics.

7. Profit and Loss

Businessmen and Economies:

 

Winners: Defense contractors (e.g., Lockheed Martin), energy exporters (U.S. LNG suppliers), and certain food exporters benefited financially.

Losers: Ordinary citizens worldwide faced higher costs of living. Small businesses reliant on stable supply chains suffered severe losses.

Governments:

 

Russia endured severe sanctions but mitigated some effects through energy sales to China and India.

Ukraine's economy shrunk by over 30%, requiring massive reconstruction funds post-war.

8. Broader Global Consequences

Cold War 2.0: The conflict has revived ideological and strategic divisions reminiscent of the Cold War.

Energy Transition: Europe accelerated its move to renewable energy to reduce reliance on Russian gas.

War Fatigue: Global powers are grappling with balancing support for Ukraine while addressing domestic economic crises.

9. Conclusion

The war in Ukraine is not merely a regional conflict but a global turning point. It is a tale of power dynamics, economic repercussions, and human suffering, with no definitive resolution in sight. The world watches as the battle reshapes international relations, highlighting the cost of war and the enduring quest for peace.

যুদ্ধ শুরুর কারণ

ইউক্রেন যুদ্ধের সূচনা বহুমুখী কারণ ও পরিস্থিতির ফল। এর মধ্যে রয়েছে ঐতিহাসিক, রাজনৈতিক, ও তাৎক্ষণিক বেশ কিছু কারণ। নিচে সেগুলো বিশদভাবে আলোচনা করা হলো:

১. ঐতিহাসিক প্রেক্ষাপট

রাশিয়ার প্রভাব ও সম্পর্ক:

ইউক্রেন, একটি সাবেক সোভিয়েত প্রজাতন্ত্র, রাশিয়ার সঙ্গে দীর্ঘদিনের ঐতিহাসিক ও সাংস্কৃতিক সম্পর্ক রয়েছে। তবে ১৯৯১ সালে সোভিয়েত ইউনিয়ন ভেঙে যাওয়ার পর ইউক্রেন স্বাধীন রাষ্ট্রে পরিণত হয় এবং পশ্চিমা শক্তির (ইইউ ও ন্যাটো) সঙ্গে সম্পর্ক বাড়ানোর চেষ্টা শুরু করে।

ক্রিমিয়া দখল (২০১৪):

রাশিয়া ২০১৪ সালে ক্রিমিয়া দখল করে, দাবি করে যে এটি তাদের ঐতিহাসিক ভূমি এবং সেখানে বসবাসরত রুশ জাতিগোষ্ঠীর সুরক্ষার জন্য এটি জরুরি। এই ঘটনা ইউক্রেন এবং পশ্চিমা শক্তির সঙ্গে রাশিয়ার সম্পর্ককে আরো জটিল করে তোলে।

২. রাজনৈতিক কারণ

পূর্ব ইউক্রেনের বিচ্ছিন্নতাবাদ:

ডনেস্ক এবং লুহানস্ক অঞ্চলগুলোতে রুশ-ভাষী জনসংখ্যা বিচ্ছিন্নতাবাদী আন্দোলন শুরু করে এবং রাশিয়া তাদের সমর্থন দেয়। এটি ইউক্রেনের সার্বভৌমত্বের ওপর সরাসরি হুমকি সৃষ্টি করে।

ন্যাটো সম্প্রসারণ:

রাশিয়া ন্যাটোর পূর্ব ইউরোপে সম্প্রসারণকে তাদের জাতীয় নিরাপত্তার জন্য হুমকি হিসেবে দেখে। ইউক্রেনের ন্যাটোতে যোগ দেওয়ার আকাঙ্ক্ষা এবং পশ্চিমা জোটের সঙ্গে ঘনিষ্ঠ সম্পর্ক রাশিয়ার প্রতিরোধ বাড়িয়ে তোলে।

৩. তাৎক্ষণিক কারণ (২০২২)

রাশিয়ার সামরিক অভিযান:

২০২২ সালের ফেব্রুয়ারিতে রাশিয়া ইউক্রেনে পূর্ণমাত্রার সামরিক অভিযান শুরু করে। রাশিয়ার দাবি ছিল, ইউক্রেন "সামরিকীকরণ" এবং "নাজিবাদ" করছে, যা তারা নির্মূল করতে চায়। তবে বিশ্লেষকদের মতে, এই আক্রমণের প্রকৃত উদ্দেশ্য ছিল ইউক্রেনের ওপর রাশিয়ার নিয়ন্ত্রণ পুনঃপ্রতিষ্ঠা এবং পশ্চিমা প্রভাব প্রতিহত করা।

এই কারণগুলো একত্রে ইউক্রেন সংকটকে সংঘাতের পর্যায়ে নিয়ে যায়, যা পরে আঞ্চলিক সীমা পেরিয়ে বৈশ্বিক প্রভাব তৈরি করে।

Effect of the Ukraine War on the World

The Russia-Ukraine war has triggered far-reaching global consequences across political, economic, social, and environmental dimensions. Below is a comprehensive analysis of these effects:

 

1. Political and Geopolitical Effects

Polarization and Alliances

Renewed Cold War Dynamics: The war has deepened divisions between Western nations (led by the U.S. and NATO) and Russia, with China playing a balancing act.

NATO Expansion: Countries like Finland and Sweden joined NATO, signaling a shift in Europe’s security architecture.

Global Realignment: Non-aligned countries (e.g., India, Turkey, and Gulf nations) are leveraging their positions to secure economic and strategic benefits.

UN and Global Diplomacy

The war exposed the limitations of global institutions like the UN in preventing conflict, with key resolutions being vetoed by Russia in the Security Council.

Efforts to mediate peace have struggled due to entrenched positions by both sides and the interests of global powers.

2. Economic Effects

Energy Crisis

Rising Energy Prices:

Russia’s dominance in global energy markets (oil and gas) caused severe price spikes when Western nations imposed sanctions.

Europe faced an energy crisis as it cut reliance on Russian gas, leading to increased costs and accelerated adoption of alternative energy sources.

Shift in Energy Trade:

Russia pivoted to selling energy to China, India, and other Asian nations at discounted rates.

Countries like the U.S. and Gulf states benefited from higher energy demand and exports.

Inflation and Recession Risks

The war disrupted global supply chains, causing inflationary pressures on food, fuel, and raw materials.

Many economies faced slowed growth or recession, particularly in Europe, which bore the brunt of energy shortages.

Global Trade Disruptions

Sanctions on Russia: These disrupted trade routes, causing shortages of critical goods like metals, fertilizers, and grains.

Shipping Delays: The Black Sea, a crucial trade route, became a zone of uncertainty, slowing exports from Ukraine and Russia.

3. Food Crisis

Global Hunger

Wheat and Grain Supply:

Russia and Ukraine together account for nearly 30% of global wheat exports and are major suppliers of corn and barley.

The war caused shortages, particularly in Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia, where reliance on Ukrainian and Russian grains is high.

Rising Prices: Global food prices hit record highs in 2022, exacerbating hunger in developing nations.

Fertilizer Shortages: Sanctions on Russian fertilizer exports led to higher agricultural costs, impacting crop yields worldwide.

4. Humanitarian Effects

Refugee Crisis

Over 8 million Ukrainians fled to Europe, making it the largest refugee movement in Europe since World War II.

Neighboring countries like Poland, Hungary, and Romania bore the immediate burden, while Western Europe struggled with long-term integration challenges.

Civilian Suffering

Civilians in Ukraine face widespread displacement, destruction of homes, and lack of basic necessities.

The psychological toll of war has ripple effects across communities, particularly for displaced families.

5. Impact on Global Security

Increased Defense Spending

NATO and other Western countries increased military budgets, reversing decades of defense cuts.

Countries like Germany, Japan, and Sweden, traditionally neutral or restrained in military spending, committed to bolstering their defenses.

Arms Race

The war spurred an arms race, with countries investing in advanced technologies such as drones, cyber warfare tools, and hypersonic missiles.

Risk of Escalation

The conflict raised fears of a broader war, particularly with nuclear-armed powers involved.

Cyberattacks and misinformation campaigns have increased globally as tools of warfare.

6. Financial and Market Impact

Currency Volatility

The Russian ruble experienced extreme fluctuations but stabilized through strict government controls.

The U.S. dollar strengthened due to its safe-haven status, affecting global trade and increasing the debt burden of developing countries reliant on dollar-denominated loans.

Stock Markets

Global stock markets faced volatility as investors reacted to the war, sanctions, and rising commodity prices.

Defense and energy companies saw profits soar, while tech and consumer goods companies faced challenges.

7. Environmental Effects

Energy Transition

Europe accelerated its shift to renewable energy sources like wind, solar, and hydrogen to reduce dependence on Russian fossil fuels.

Fossil fuel consumption surged temporarily as coal and oil were used to offset natural gas shortages.

War’s Environmental Damage

Bombings, infrastructure destruction, and industrial damage in Ukraine caused pollution and ecological harm.

The war disrupted environmental conservation efforts in the region.

8. Winners and Losers

Winners

Defense Contractors: Companies like Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and other arms manufacturers saw profits rise.

Energy Exporters: The U.S., Gulf countries, and others benefitted from increased energy demand and higher prices.

China and India: Both countries leveraged discounted Russian energy imports while avoiding direct involvement in the conflict.

Losers

Europe: Economic slowdowns, energy shortages, and inflation hit European nations hardest.

Developing Countries: Struggling economies faced higher import costs, exacerbating poverty and debt crises.

Global Citizens: Ordinary people worldwide faced rising living costs, reduced economic stability, and greater uncertainty.

9. Cultural and Social Effects

Rise in Nationalism: The war intensified nationalist rhetoric in many countries, leading to increased polarization.

Global Unity Movements: Grassroots movements advocating for peace and refugee support grew in response to the crisis.

10. Long-term Implications

Shift in Global Power: The war solidified the decline of unipolar dominance, with China and India emerging as key players in a multipolar world.

Economic Decoupling: Countries are increasingly diversifying supply chains to reduce reliance on adversarial nations.

Global Security Redefined: The war has reshaped defense strategies and alliances, likely leading to prolonged geopolitical tensions.

Conclusion

The Ukraine war is a defining event of the 21st century, with consequences that ripple across borders and industries. It has reshaped global politics, disrupted economies, and heightened security concerns. While some nations and industries have capitalized on the crisis, the overall impact has been a net loss for global stability, underscoring the high cost of war in an interconnected world.

Effect of the Ukraine War on Bangladesh

The Russia-Ukraine war has had significant economic, social, and geopolitical impacts on Bangladesh, a nation interconnected with the global economy. Below is a detailed exploration of these effects:

 

1. Economic Impact

Rising Commodity Prices

Fuel Prices:

 

Bangladesh, reliant on imported fuel, faced a sharp increase in global oil and gas prices. The government raised domestic fuel prices by over 50% in 2022, leading to inflationary pressures.

Energy shortages disrupted industrial production, particularly in the textile and garment sectors, which are critical for export earnings.

Food Prices:

 

Ukraine and Russia are major exporters of wheat, and the disruption in supply chains led to higher wheat and edible oil prices in Bangladesh.

Inflation on essentials like rice, flour, and cooking oil increased the cost of living for the average Bangladeshi household.

Trade Challenges

Garment Exports:

 

The EU is the largest market for Bangladeshi garments. Economic slowdowns in Europe due to the war reduced demand, impacting Bangladesh’s export revenues.

Rising production costs (fuel and electricity) further squeezed profit margins for manufacturers.

Fertilizer Shortage:

 

Russia and Belarus are key suppliers of fertilizers. Disruptions in supply and increased costs of imports affected agricultural productivity in Bangladesh.

Currency Devaluation

The war contributed to global dollar shortages. The Bangladeshi Taka devalued significantly, increasing the cost of imports and creating a trade deficit.

Foreign reserves dipped as Bangladesh struggled to manage rising import bills.

2. Energy Crisis

Gas Supply Issues:

Bangladesh relies on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) to meet its energy needs. Rising LNG prices in the global market forced the country to reduce imports, leading to frequent power outages.

Impact on Industries:

Textile, leather, and jute industries, which rely on uninterrupted power, faced reduced productivity.

Small businesses struggled to survive due to energy rationing and increased costs.

3. Social and Household Strain

Inflation and Cost of Living:

 

Inflation exceeded 9% in 2022, severely impacting low- and middle-income households.

Increased food and fuel prices led to a rise in poverty, with many families struggling to afford essentials.

Job Losses:

 

Export-oriented industries, particularly garments, saw reduced orders, leading to job cuts.

Informal workers were particularly vulnerable to income instability.

4. Food Security

Wheat Dependency:

Bangladesh imports about 40% of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine. The war disrupted supply chains, forcing the country to seek alternative suppliers like India at higher prices.

Edible Oil Crisis:

Sunflower oil imports from Ukraine declined, and alternative imports, such as soybean oil, became costlier.

5. Impact on Infrastructure Projects

Cost Overruns:

Ongoing mega-projects like the Padma Bridge Rail Link and Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant faced cost increases due to higher prices for materials and delays in imported equipment.

Sanctions on Russia:

The Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, built with Russian assistance, experienced delays due to sanctions impacting payments and supply chains.

6. Remittance and Migrant Workers

Impact on Remittances:

Remittances from Russia and Eastern Europe declined as the economic situation in these regions worsened.

Migrant workers in Europe faced job insecurity, indirectly affecting remittance inflows.

7. Geopolitical Considerations

Diplomatic Balancing Act:

Bangladesh maintained a neutral stance on the war, abstaining from votes condemning Russia at the United Nations.

As a developing country, Bangladesh aimed to balance its relationships with both Russia (key trade and defense partner) and Western nations (major export markets and aid providers).

8. Long-term Implications

Economic Resilience

The war highlighted Bangladesh's dependence on global supply chains and the need to diversify energy and food sources. Efforts to promote renewable energy and local production are likely to accelerate.

Regional Cooperation

Bangladesh is exploring stronger regional trade agreements (e.g., SAARC, BIMSTEC) to reduce reliance on distant markets.

Geopolitical Realignment

The war has forced Bangladesh to navigate a complex geopolitical environment, balancing ties with Russia, China, and Western powers, while ensuring national interests are protected.

Conclusion

The Russia-Ukraine war has underscored the vulnerabilities of Bangladesh as a developing nation in a globally interconnected world. From economic inflation to food insecurity, the challenges are profound. However, the crisis also presents opportunities for Bangladesh to strengthen its resilience by diversifying its economy, reducing dependency on imports, and investing in sustainable energy and local industries.